Week 9 Bowl Projections

A look at how I see (or, maybe more accurately, hope) the bowls will turn out:

Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Boise State
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. TCU
FedEx Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
Rose Bowl Game presented by VIZIO: Wisconsin vs. Stanford

Top 10, Week 9

I guess it's taken me several weeks to get over Alabama's loss to South Carolina. Part of it was being out of town a couple of Sundays ago; part of it was laziness; a lot of it was disappointment in not being able to keep Bama in the top spot. But, their week off has reinvigorated me and hopefully will have been a good time to re-energize the Tide. With that, here's my Top 10.

1. Auburn (9-0) The Tigers from the Plains have been practically impossible to stop offensively. Their talent in unmistakable on that side of the ball. Their defense has quite a bit of talent as well, and though the depth has improved over last season, it's still not what they'd like. But, so far, the offense has been able to cover for them. A match-up against Oregon would be incredible to take-in.
2. Oregon (8-0) They've got crazy balance in their offensive production. They play fast and they don't stop. They should win out and show up in Glendale, but it won't necessarily be easy. Playing in nine conference games is tough and that could prove to be the downfall of the Ducks. 
3. TCU (9-0) I don't know if this is more a shot at Boise State or a reflection of a bit of a tougher schedule for TCU than the Broncos. In keeping with the guideline of undefeated rank ahead of teams who've lost, TCU stays up here. Huge game with Utah coming up.
4. Boise State (7-0) They haven't done anything wrong and while it's tough to fault them for playing their schedule, in the end, the body of work will not be as impressive as the potential zero in the loss column. 
5. Utah (8-0) Their next two games (against TCU and Notre Dame) will bring a lot of attention to them, especially if they keep winning. They could be the surprise non-AQ team that sneaks into the conversation; the Pac-12-to-be has to be excited about their addition.
6. Alabama (7-1) The Tide went into their off week with a lot more momentum than they did last year, finishing with a strong second half against Tennessee on Rocky Top. Hopefully that momentum carries over into their final four games, the first of which is the only road game of that stretch. Saban won at LSU in overtime in his first trip as a visiting coach to Tiger Stadium; LSU also had an extra week to regroup to focus on Bama, so they should be rested and hungry. Should be a great one.
7. Stanford (7-1) Their only loss was to Oregon, so they vault the other 1-loss teams due to that, as well as the way they've played so far. 
8. Wisconsin (7-1) The Badgers are in good shape to take a share of the Big Ten title. 
9. Oklahoma (7-1) I wouldn't want to gameplan to stop DeMarco Murray. I don't know if anyone left on their schedule can, although I hope Baylor will.
10. Ohio State (8-1) They, too, can take a share of the Big Ten title, but will have to go through Iowa on the road to do so. 

Public Enemies

For anyone claiming to be a college football fan, the following link is a treasure trove of fun: http://www.pollspeak.com/pollstalker/pollstalker.php?r=F&s=13&p=26.

What you'll find are the ballots for everyone voting in the AP Top 25 College Football Poll. You can see individual ballots and how they compare with their peers' votes. They also highlight voters who are extreme -- votes that are the highest or lowest for each team, or are within one or two of that high or low. This week, Alabama finished with 58 first-place votes, gaining the vote of Greg Lesmerises of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. That leaves two voters putting a team other than the Crimson Tide at the top of their ballot. As such, I'm beginning a new feature called "Public Enemies."

Public Enemy #2: Pete DiPrimio
Pete writes for the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel, the hometown paper of my wife. It is utterly disappointing, as she has also stated, that a bad name is being given to this great city because of the silliness of one of its sports writers. I agree with a few of DiPrimio's votes that are marked extreme: he's got Auburn at #7, which is their second-highest vote; he's got Oklahoma at #8, which is their lowest vote. However, while voting is an individual choice, I have to disagree that having Boise State in front of Alabama is a fair choice. I'm not sure what games he's been watching, but it's a tough argument for Boise State to be on top.

Public Enemy #1: Greg Archuleta
The Albuquerque Journal employs Greg Archuleta as a sports writer and somehow he has been chosen or found his way to an AP vote. With that responsibility, he has placed Ohio State #1, Boise State #2, and Alabama #3. While I'm sure he's got some reasoning behind these choices, it is difficult to find it. Ohio State finally played a road game and didn't do much to impress against an unranked team. Boise State played one of the worst FBS schools on the road, but haven't played the competition the Tide has faced so far. It may seem like crying over spilled milk that two voters did not choose Alabama for the top of their ballot; I choose to see it more of highlighting what I consider to be Les Miles-type incompetence in assessing the football season so far.

Strangest Voter of the Week: Scott Wolf
This guy seems to be gearing up for some time on the Public Enemies list. He gave six teams their highest ratings (including Oklahoma at #2) as well as two teams their lowest ranking (including Ohio State at #6); he's also got two teams ranked in near extreme positions. I remember looking at his ballots last year and wondering how a writer from the Los Angeles Daily News scavenges a vote; I bet it has something to do with an underhanded deal involving USC.

Top 10, Week 5

1. Alabama (5-0) Impressive first half against Florida carried them through an underwhelming offensive showing in the second half. This year's defense is bending a lot more than last year's, but so far, they've not broken when it's mattered. They are playing with confidence and forcing poor decisions. Watch for next week's game against South Carolina to be more similar to the Arkansas game than the Florida one.
2. Ohio State (5-0) Playing on the road is rarely easy, particularly when you're a team that's supposed to put opponents away without trouble. Good job by the Buckeyes holding on and not letting it be any closer than it was. Their road to the BCS Championship is still perilous.
3. Oregon (5-0) The Ducks continue to succeed in the second half, especially on defense. After getting down in the first half to Stanford, they pulled together and finished in distinctive fashion. Their path, like Alabama's and Ohio State's, is still a minefield.
4. Boise State (4-0) Big win in New Mexico, but their strength of schedule starts falling like a Black Diamond ski slope. They are not any less talented, but with college football's regular season often being one of attrition, I think they are going to need other teams to falter in order for them to have a chance to finish on top.
5. Auburn (5-0) This seems to be a much different 5-0 Auburn squad than last year's 5-0 team at this point in the season. They easily took care of Louisiana-Monroe as they should have and continued to build Cam Newton's confidence. They hit the road for the first time in three weeks with a game at Kentucky, which is followed by home games against Arkansas and LSU. The Wildcats shouldn't pose too much of a threat, but it might be a bit of a trap game for the Tigers.
6. TCU (5-0) Not very convincing wins the past two weeks drops them down a bit. Future dates against Air Force and Utah might jump them back up near Boise State, though.
7. Nebraska (4-0) I'm sure some Husker fans were saddened by the Longhorns loss to Oklahoma yesterday, as it somewhat diminishes their year-long plan for the showdown in Lincoln. Though they have not played too rough a schedule and have at times looked non-elite, I'd still take them over Oklahoma right now and look for the two teams to meet in the Big XII Championship. 
8. Oklahoma (5-0) They took care of business against a Texas team that's having to find and establish its identity (much like an alligator-related team in the South). I'm not convinced that they are an elite group, but wins have a way of building confidence, no matter how they come.
9. Arkansas (3-1) They know who they are and I think their loss to Alabama will free them from the pressure of having to be perfect, which should allow them to play looser and with more focus. After a big game against Texas A&M this Saturday, they head to Auburn for what should be a great shoot-out on the Plains.
10. Florida (4-1) As much as I'd enjoy dropping them from the Top 10, I think they'll still be around by the end of the season. For all the talk about this game being circled on the Gators' schedule in the way Alabama had done with the SEC Championship Game the previous season, I didn't think there was really enough time yet for that to really provide the focus needed to walk into a hostile environment and take away a win. For all that the Gators did wrong, they also showed they could stop Alabama's offense, their punter is amazing, they can move the ball with some ease, and, for some stretches, their offensive line can dominate. The turnovers will skew how this game is viewed, but the mistakes that were made are correctable and the Gators can still find their way to Atlanta in December.

Moving on:
Wisconsin (4-1) Having to play on the road against a team whose coach was laid up in a hospital bed due to a heart-attack and blood clot was quite the hurdle placed before the Badgers by the football gods. Or, it was just due them after the crazy escape from the Arizona State game with a win.